If current trends continue, world carbon dioxide emissions in 2030, far from declining, will be nearly twice those recorded in 1990, with fossil fuels continuing to dominate the energy picture, accounting for no less than 90 per cent of supply.
This is the somewhat depressing conclusion from a major exercise in futurology recently unveiled by the European Commission. Called the World energy, technology and climate policy outlook (WETO), the study has been produced by a consortium of teams from organisations in the EU, using something called the POLES energy model. As you would expect for a report emanating from the research side of the EC, among its conclusions is of course that much more research is urgently needed.
But the EC believes its WETO study "sets out for the first time ever a detailed picture of global challenges" in the energy field expected within the next thirty years.
The challenges look immense. Developing countries are expected to have what is described as a "serious influence" on the global energy picture, representing more than 50 per cent of the world's energy demand, as well as a corresponding level of CO2 emissions (up from 30 per cent of emissions in 1990). Relative to 1990 figures, the USA's contribution to CO2 emissions will have increased by 50 per cent, compared with an 18 per cent increase for the EU.
Oil will remain the main source of energy (34 per cent) followed by coal (28 per cent), with almost two-thirds of the increase in coal supply between 2000 and 2030 coming from Asia. Natural gas is projected to represent a quarter of world energy supply, with power generation accounting for the bulk of the increase. Natural gas reserves are described as "abundant" and expected to increase by around 10 per cent, with about one-third of total production originating from the CIS. The share of gas in power generation increases steadily in the three major gas-producing regions (CIS, Middle East and Latin America) and the share of coal in power generation decreases in all regions except in North America, where it stabilises and Asia, where it increases significantly.
The study projects that "the development of nuclear power does not keep pace with total electricity production: its market share comes down to 10 per cent in 2030" (from 21 per cent) while the renewables cover 4 per cent of energy production in 2030 (up from 2 per cent in 2000) mainly due to the rise of wind.
However these conclusions and figures come from what the WETO study describes as a "reference scenario" that assumes "business and technical change as usual" and which is intended as a benchmark against which to assess alternatives. The study also looks at the impacts of various climate change policies, for example attaching a carbon value to fossil fuel use (which leads to a 21 per cent drop in world CO2 emissions by 2030 relative to 1990) and a "carbon abatement case" which leads to major expansion in renewables and nuclear.
The upshot is that if the challenge of carbon dioxide is to be taken seriously it looks as if business and technical change will have to be very far from usual.
Thirty years on
One example of a radical departure from "business and technical change as usual" would be the ordering of new nuclear plants in the United States.
For some time a streamlined licensing system has existed for such projects, but no one has felt inclined to use it. The concept is a "combined operating licence", consisting of an early site permit combined with design certification.
A year ago, the US DoE launched its Nuclear Power 2010 initiative, designed to pave the way for new build in the USA. This is a publicprivate partnership aimed at demonstrating early site permitting. The DoE is sharing with utilities Dominion Resources, Entergy and Exelon the cost of early site permitting at North Anna, Grand Gulf and Clinton, which all have existing reactors.
On the design certification front an important development occurred in June when Westinghouse (part of BNFL) announced issuance by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission of a draft safety evaluation report for its AP-1000 pressurised water reactor. The company sees this as "a major milestone that will further encourage new nuclear power construction in the United States." The AP-1000, which is said to be constructable in 36 months from first concrete pour to fuel loading features passive safety and must surely be a strong contender should anyone decide to build a new PWR in the USA. The next step in the process is the final safety evaluation report, to be followed by final design approval and then actual design certification. Westinghouse "expects design certification as early as mid 2004, but no later than year-end 2005" when "US utilities will be making their decisions about new nuclear construction," the company fondly believes.
June also saw a further encouraging development for supporters of new nuclear projects in the USA, when the Senate endorsed a plan for the government to provide loan guarantees.
Despite the nuclear industry's mixed fortunes of late (as evidenced by a quick glance at this month's news pages, for example) the foundations for new build are being steadily put in place in the USA. And if anything comes of this it would indeed be remarkable. It is now some 30 years since an order for a nuclear plant was placed in the USA that was not subsequently cancelled.
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