Emerging economies such as Brazil, India, China and Russia will dominate the growth in world energy consumption over the next 20 years, according to BP.
The oil firm has published its first ever forward-looking analysis of world energy trends - BP Energy Outlook 2030 - in which its base case scenario indicates that primary energy use will grow by nearly 40 per cent over the next two decades.
Some 93 per cent of that growth will come from non-OECD countries, which will increase their share of overall world energy demand from just over half currently to two-thirds.
Other key trends highlighted by the report include an increase in energy intensity globally and significant growth in non-fossil fuel based energy. Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, while coal and oil will lose market share, says BP, whose chief executive Bob Dudley said that the global need for secure, sustainable and affordable energy supplies remained an “aspiration”.
“The issues covered in this document are huge ones - the effort to provide energy to fuel the global economy, sustainably, in an era of unprecedented growth,” commented Dudley. “I believe one of our responsibilities is to share the information we have, to inform the debate on energy, and now on climate change.”
According to the BP Energy Outlook, diversification of energy sources increases and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time. Between 2010 and 2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables is seen to increase from 5 per cent to 18 per cent.
Fossil fuels' contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83 per cent to 64 per cent. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. Biofuels will account for 9 per cent of global transport fuels.
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