Renewable power generation is expected to continue its rapid growth over the next five years, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency that acknowledges the coming-of-age of the renewable energy sector. The report says that despite economic uncertainties in many countries, global power generation from hydropower, solar, wind and other renewable sources is projected to increase by more than 40% to almost 6 400 TWh - roughly one-and-a-half times current electricity production in the United States.
The study, released in early July, examines in detail 15 key markets representing about 80% of renewable generation, while identifying and characterising developments that may emerge in other important markets. It presents a forecast of global developments and detailed country projections over the next five years.
The new study, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012, says that renewable electricity generation should expand by 1 840 TWh between 2011 and 2017, almost 60% more than the 1 160 TWh growth registered between 2005 and 2011. Renewable generation will increasingly shift from the OECD to new markets, with non-OECD countries accounting for two-thirds of this growth. Of the 710 GW of new capacity expected, China accounts for almost 40%. Significant deployment is also expected in the United States, India, Germany and Brazil.
This growth is underpinned by the maturing of a portfolio of renewable energy technologies, in large part due to supportive policy and market frameworks in OECD countries, together with rapidly increasing electricity demand and energy security needs.
The report presents detailed forecasts for renewable energy generation and capacity for eight technologies - hydropower, bioenergy for power, onshore wind, offshore wind, solar photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP), geothermal and ocean power. This first edition focuses on renewable energy in the electricity sector, though it also examines solar thermal heating.
Other key findings of the report include:
* Hydropower continues to account for the major part of renewable generation and it registers the largest absolute growth (+730 TWh) of any single renewable technology.
* Non-hydropower renewable technologies continue to scale up quickly. Between 2011 and 2017, generation from these technologies increases by over 1 100 TWh.
* Onshore wind, bioenergy and solar PV see the largest increases, respectively, in generation after hydropower. Geothermal continues to develop in areas with good resources. Ocean technologies are taking important steps towards commercialisation.
Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012 may be ordered from the IEA via books@iea.org
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