Sian Crampsie
The IEA believes that the pledges made under the Paris climate agreement will not be enough to limit the global temperature rise to 2°C.
The agency says that it has studied the implications on the energy sector of the Paris Agreement and forecasts that warming could be limited to 2.7°C if all pledges were adhered to.
The Paris Agreement came into force earlier this month and nations are currently meeting in Morocco at the 22nd Conference of the Parties (COP22) to discuss the details of the deal.
Over 100 countries have now ratified the Paris Agreement, but IEA Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol said that fossil fuels are still a threat to the fight against climate change in spite of the significant growth in renewable energy in recent years.
“The fossil fuel era is far from being over,” said Dr. Birol. “Fossil fuels currently have an 81 per cent share in the energy mix and if all the Paris pledges are implemented, this share will go down by 2040, but only to 74 per cent.
“The Paris Agreement provides momentum and a framework, but those pledges are not enough to bring the planet to the 2°C trajectory.”
The IEA’s analysis, outlined in its latest World Energy Outlook (WEO), shows that although coal and oil’s share in the energy mix will decline, natural gas use will rise. Coal demand is projected to barely grow in the next 25 years, but global oil demand will continue to grow, IEA believes, mainly because of a lack of alternative fuels for road freight, aviation and petrochemicals.
LNG will also drive a “second gas revolution”, according to Dr. Birol, thanks to LNG infrastructure coming on-line in new supply countries such as Australia, the USA, Mozambique and Tanzania.
The IEA has forecast a 50 per cent rise in natural gas consumption to 2040, and says that LNG will re-shape the natural gas markets by overtaking pipeline gas in terms of trade and redefining the nature of contracts and pricing.
The WEO 2016 report also shows the rapid rise of renewable energy across the globe. “Renewables is a growth story,” Dr. Birol said. “We have seen a major expansion in renewables, led by wind and solar and across all countries.”
In the IEA’s main WEO 2016 scenario, nearly 60 per cent of all new power generation capacity to 2040 comes from renewables and by 2040 the majority of renewables-based generation is competitive without any subsidies. “Renewables make very large strides in coming decades but their gains remain largely confined to electricity generation,” said Dr Birol. “The next frontier for the renewable story is to expand their use in the industrial, building and transportation sectors where enormous potential for growth exists.”
The IEA notes that limiting the global temperature rise to 2°C will require the energy sector to be carbon-neutral by the end of t he century. A more ambitious target of 1.5°C would require it to be carbon-neutral by 2040.
“The 2°C target is not out of reach but will require an acceleration of climate policies and a harder push on renewables,” said IEA’s Laura Cozzi, one of the report’s authors.
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