The solar eclipse due at 9.30 am over most of northern and central Europe on 20 March is raising questions of grid reliability and flexibility in the European power generation market. Grid instability due to the unprecedentedly large amount of variable solar power on the grids will, says analyst Frost & Sullivan, drive industry experts to rethink the importance of a flexible and resilient grid infrastructure. Since the last relevant eclipse in 1999 in Europe the installed capacity of photovoltaic has increased from 0.1 GW to 90 GW. The solar eclipse due at 9.30 am over most of northern and central Europe on 20 March is raising questions of grid reliability and flexibility in the European power generation market
The solar eclipse is likely to cover 85% of the sun; this will translate to 34-35 GW of solar power fall off from the European grid. This impact will vary across countries depending on the installed base of solar power generation. Countries with high penetration of solar generation such as Germany, Italy and Spain will undergo a more pronounced impact compared to, for example, the United Kingdom where solar capacity accounts for only 2% of the installed base.
ENTSO-E, the organisation of European TSO's, has been spearheading the response, which it describes as 'an unprecedented test for Europe's electricity system' and has carried out a Solar Eclipse Impact Analysis. The main conclusion of is that operational co-ordination among European TSOs will be crucial. After operational planning work, TSOs will put in place continuous on line co-ordination between control rooms across Europe ahead of, and during the eclipse to better co-ordinate the scheduled remedial actions.
While it is clear from the report that TSOs are taking measures to mitigate the risks - in fact European TSOs have been preparing for it for several months, including Dutch/German TSO TenneT which on 3 March issued a tender for a supply of balancing power on the day - ENTSO-E regards the event as a perfect illustration of the importance and increasing challenge of maintaining system security as more and more volatile and dispersed generation connects to the grid.
Renewable energy consultancy Ecofys carried out its own analysis, and, with reports from the main TSP's, concluded that the exceptional fluctuations in irradiation will have an impact on power gradients and balances on a continental scale, but that a complete understanding of all relevant phenomena is lacking, as well as practical experience. The affected TSO's have performed several analyses of possible scenarios during the last months with the following main findings in relation to Germany:
- In the case of a sunny day, a steep positive gradient of the PV power generation is expected. Regarding the current forecast, a total deviation of up to 13 GW in more than 1 hour is probable. This value would exceed recent gradients in the power system during extreme events by the factor 2 to 3.
- The main challenge is to balance the power system with this dynamically changing generation balance.
- The event requires a flexible power fleet and a significant amount of reserve control during a short period.
Specific challenges include the following:
-Meteorological forecasts will be uncertain.
- Market behaviour will be hard to predict.
-The maximum hourly gradient corresponds to what may be expected on a normal, sunny morning, once there is more than 60 GW of PV installed. This figure is consistent with German policy targets.
- Therefore the eclipse is a chance to gain experience and exercise for the future. This applies not only to TSOs, but to all other market participants as well.
-According to a recent study by Frost & Sullivan, solar power growth will outpace most other forms of renewable energy production. Solar PV's share of total power generation capacity is forecast to increase dramatically between 2012 and 2020, to 5.9% of world power capacity. This global share covers wide variations among regions; solar PV's share in the EU capacity mix is forecast to be 12.4%, while remaining below 3% in regions such as the Middle East and Africa.
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