The history of the power industry, like most other industries, is littered with the remains of new technologies that have been launched with high hopes but have not delivered as anticipated. Wariness of the new is particularly understandable in the very demanding world of advanced gas turbines, where there have been several recent well documented cases of premature commercialisation.
There is now, however, some evidence that the lessons have been learned and taken to heart and that the worst may be behind us. There are signs that the industry is improving the way it introduces new technology and is winning back a little more confidence from the marketplace.
Siemens Westinghouse, for example, has recently announced that six of its W501G gas turbines (at Lakeland, Millennium, Magic Valley and Ironwood) have achieved commercial operation and the company claims that "the fact that W501G units continue to gain commercial acceptance confirms our ability to deliver next-generation technology to the market."
Meanwhile, Alstom believes that it has now uncovered all the issues that have been hampering the performance of its GT24/GT26 machines and reports that it is making good progress in implementing improvements across the fleet. Alstom says the GT24s and GT26s are operating reliably but at lower than design temperatures. This means performance levels are lower than originally intended but nevertheless "in the same range as other machines in their class." However, over the next 24-36 months, Alstom hopes it can remove these restrictions and get performance up to the levels promised when the machines were initially launched.
Very important in achieving this will be the access that Alstom has now gained to Rolls Royce aeroengine technology, including high temperature materials, design codes and extensive R&D capabilities, through the recently signed long term technology agreement. Rolls Royce engines use high temperatures, advanced thermodynamics and very high strength/high temperature materials. This expertise and knowledge will be applied to the GT24/26 machines and a joint special design team has been established in Derby, UK, whose focus will be these performance enhancements.
There is also, thankfully, a renewed emphasis on full scale and thorough testing before embarking into the marketplace.
At Alstom's Finspong site, for example, a new test rig, complete with its own LNG facility (as there is no natural gas supply in the area) has been built primarily for putting the new 30 MW GT10C through its paces, with the first commercial unit due to be available in June.
Being evolutionary rather than revolutionary is also seen as another good selling point in the current climate, where the buyer is understandably extremely cautious about anything that smacks of what might be seen as new technology for new technology's sake.
The GT10C is an evolution of the GT10A, which dates back to the mid 1970s and the days of Sulzer Escher Wyss. It is also interesting to note that the venerable GT35, introduced around 1952, albeit continuously upgraded (and now rated at 17 MW compared with its original 10 MW), continues to feature prominently in Alstom's roster of gas turbine offerings.
There is now no shame in selling a turbine with a basic design that is essentially 50 years old, as long as it does the job reliably and cost effectively.
Emissions: bringing the market to bear
A recent report comparing the emissions performance (NOx, SO2, CO2 and Hg) of the 100 largest power plant owners in the United States, shows a wide variation between the "best" and "worst" performers.*
It will be interesting to see how far the gap is narrowed with the introduction of the "cap and trade" approach advocated in the Bush administration's "Clear Skies" initiative.
Cap and trade is a market based approach to controlling emissions and such market based mechanisms seem considerably more effective at getting results than prescriptive rule-based approaches with their endless scope for the litigation beloved of American corporations.
Cap and trade has already proved effective in the USA for the reduction of SO2 in the context of the US Acid Rain Program. It is also being used in the Los Angeles area to control SO2 and NOx, while in the northeast USA there is a regional NOx cap and trade programme.
Another good precedent for market related regimes when it comes to controlling emissions comes from Sweden. Since January 1992, Sweden has been operating a system of charges on NOx emissions from power plants, with revenues distributed back to the participating plants in proportion to their final production of useful energy.
The Swedish experience confirms that financial incentives are the best way of improving emissions performance, particularly when there are rewards for doing better than the regulatory minimum.
Texas shows how
Early experience with electricity deregulation in Texas shows that when it is done properly there are benefits to both providers and customers.
Research released in early April by XENERGY finds that in the case of Texas, "competitors are making money" and "customers are making money."
The way the market has been designed has had a lot to do with it and the "Public Utilities Commission of Texas (PUCT) jurisdiction over ERCOT and their ability to co-ordinate wholesale and retail initiatives unlike any other market to date has been critical to the market's success."
It remains to be seen whether the success can be sustained, particularly during the impending season of summer peaks. But so far experience in Texas is helping to restore the image of deregulation so badly damaged by California's debacle.
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