The UK's principal TSO National Grid has warned that its capacity to supply electricity next winter will be at a seven-year low owing to generator closures and breakdowns.
The margin, which ran at about 5% over the 2014-5 winter, would be nearer 4% this year, National Grid said. This compares to a 17% margin in 2012, but since then 15 power plants have been closed, or partially closed. National Grid's assessment, made in its 2014/15 Winter Outlook report, assumes a similar demand pattern to last winter but allows for a fall in supply, owing to the closure of generators and new plants not coming online quickly enough to replace them.
National Grid said it has contingency plans in place to manage supply, including demand management measures such as paying large users to switch off at periods of high demand, ie on cold winter evenings. It is also in the process of finalising contracts with three UK power stations - Littlebrook, Rye House and Peterhead - to provide 1.1 GW of reserve power, increasing the margin to over 6%. The three plants were chosen following a tender process in which eight power stations offered a total of 5.4GW of power. "The electricity margin has decreased compared with recent years, but the outlook remains manageable and well within the reliability standard set by the government," said Cordi O'Hara, director of market operations at National Grid.
Dismissing fears of possible electricity blackouts, energy minister Matthew Hancock said in an interview with the BBC: "We are absolutely clear we are taking the measures necessary in order to have secure energy supplies this winter."
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