The UK is "very unlikely" to reproduce the shale gas revolution seen in the USA, according to Dr James Buckee, the chairman of oil and gas development company EnQuest.
Buckee believes that factors such as rock geology, royalties from shale gas drilling and well decline rates will prevent the UK's nascent shale gas sector from developing rapidly or becoming a major new sector in the UK's energy industry.
Buckee was speaking at a panel debate in London alongside ten other energy and industrial sector executives and discussed the economic benefits and environmental risks of shale gas extraction.
"I've been involved in shale gas in North America for quite a long time and I've invested quite heavily in it and it is my conclusion that the UK is very unlikely to reproduce the US shale gas revolution," said Buckee.
One of the key factors that could affect the growth of the UK's shale gas industry is the fact that royalties from underground shale gas resources will automatically go to the UK government, rather than to landowners, as occurs in the USA.
Another reason, according to Buckee is the fact that shale gas well production declines by as much as 60-70 per cent in the first year of operation, necessitating the drilling of many wells. In some parts of the USA, hundreds of wells are being permitted each quarter. "I just don't see this happening in the UK," said Buckee.
Just one shale gas well has been flow tested in the UK and while the results were encouraging, it remains unclear whether the country's resources could be developed economically.
"We do not know whether we have got a marginal increase in supply, a significant increase in supply or something at the 'bonanza' end," said professor Alan Riley of City University London.
According to Lord Smith, chairman of the Environment Agency, shale gas could "provide a significant part of the UK's energy needs" and could also be exploited safely with the right regulations in place. However he noted that while widespread shale gas exploration would enhance energy security, it would also lock the UK in to the greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas for 30 years. "It will be essential that we explore carbon capture and storage for gas-fired power stations," said Lord Smith.
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