The latest figures from Cornwall Insight’s ‘Benchmark power curve’ forecast that by 2040 demand from electric vehicles will contribute an additional 71.6 TWh, 31 times higher than the current level of demand for electricity from electrified transport and 25% of total annual demand currently, which stands at 299 TWh.
According to the latest ‘Benchmark power curve report’ electrification of the economy (electric vehicles and heat pumps) and use of green hydrogen as an energy carrier together increase demand from 298 TWh in 2021-22 to 628.4 TWh in the Central Scenario by 2040 and up to 668.2 TWh in the High Scenario. The graph shows the Central Scenario,
Tom Edwards, senior modeller at Cornwall Insight, commented: “EVs are widely seen as crucial in reducing emissions to meet net zero. However, the magnitude of the impact that the technology will have on the electricity system should not be underestimated. If EVs increase according to the National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios (FES) ‘Leading the Way’ scenario, the increase in demand for electricity will be substantial.
“However, EVs have the potential to offer the system considerable flexible vehicle-to-grid (V2G) discharging and smart charging, which reduces the level of investment needed in flexible power supply.
“At the same time, greater flexibility may be needed if consumers were to charge whenever it is convenient, and with the wide deployment of EVs needed to meet net zero it is clear that this would currently not be possible
“The electrification of transport remains a significant challenge, particularly if the current market design remains the same. However, to sustain such a growth in demand, it is likely that the market design will need to change to better support the net zero objectives.”