Germany will not experience an electricity shortage as a result of an exit from coal and nuclear power generation if it rolls out renewables as planned, even if the country’s power consumption rises due to heat pumps, electric cars, and hydrogen electrolysers, says the country’s grid agency (BNetzA) in a preview of the period 2025 to 2031, according to a summary provided by the economy and climate ministry (BMWK).
“The results show that security of supply is also guaranteed in the future, even if electricity consumption increases significantly, the nuclear power plants are shut down and coal is phased out by 2030,” the summary states, according to a report by online agency Clean Energy Wire. “Until 2031, demand in Germany can be met by the market in all hours of the year,” the summary continued.
The country’s three remaining nuclear power plants are due to be taken off grid in mid-April, and the government aims to bring forward the exit from coal from the agreed 2038 phase-out date, ‘ideally’ to 2030.
BNetzA prepares a monitoring report on electricity supply security for the government every two years, and a draft of the latest report has reached the consultation phase between ministries. In its analysis the agency assumed a rapid rollout of renewables from 123 GW in 2021 to 360 GW in 2030, in line with government targets, as well as the construction of new gas-fired power plants with a capacity of between 17 and 21 GW by 2031. It also assumes that Europe’s electricity market will function well, allowing cross-border electricity trade.
The rollout of renewables in Germany is widely considered the key to furthering the country’s energy transition. However recent expansion rates have not kept up with government targets.