The global offshore wind energy sector has the potential to reach 200 GW of installed capacity by 2030, according to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).
GWEC’s new market intelligence report shows that the offshore wind sector has grown by an average 21 per cent every year since 2030, and could add another 165-200 GW over the next ten years.
According to GWEC, more than 4 GW of new capacity was installed each year in 2017 and 2018, making up 8 per cent of the total new installations during both years. For the first time, China was the largest offshore market in 2018 based on new installations, followed by the UK and Germany.
“We are standing within reach of a truly global offshore wind industry,” said Karin Ohlenforst, Director of Market Intelligence at GWEC. “Based on government targets, auction results, and pipeline data we expect to see 190 GW of new capacity to be installed by 2030, but this does not represent the full potential of offshore wind.
“Many new countries are preparing to join the offshore wind revolution, while floating offshore wind represents a game-changing technological development that can add even more volumes in the years to come.”
In the report, GWEC Market Intelligence provides a market outlook representing a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario which does not incorporate further technical development or further opportunities for offshore wind, and an upside scenario which captures the additional potential.
The BAU scenario expects double-digit growth for the global offshore market based on current policies and expected auctions and tenders. This scenario makes annual installations of 15 to 20 GW after 2025 based on growth in China and other Asian markets, amounting to 165 GW of new installed capacity globally between now and 2030. This would bring the total installed capacity to nearly 190 GW.
The upside scenario captures additional potential such as the advancement of floating technology, increased cost competitiveness and therefore greater volume in mature markets, as well as the opening up of new offshore markets. Based on this scenario, a more positive outlook of over 200 GW new installed capacity between now and 2030 is possible, totalling approximately 210 GW installed capacity.
The Asian offshore market including China is expected to become the largest offshore region globally with key growth markets including Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, India and South Korea. Total installed capacity for the region under the BAU scenario is 100 GW by 2030.