Rapid renewable energy growth will help to boost energy security in Ukraine, according to analysts GlobalData.
According to the firm’s latest research, renewable installed capacity in Ukraine is set to grow at 15.6 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach 13.8 GW in 2030 from 2.8 GW in 2019.
The growth will enable Ukraine to counter a decline in domestic coal production and reduce energy imports, GlobalData says. It has been driven by ambitious renewable energy targets, backed up by favourable feed-in tariffs and energy efficiency measures.
Arkapal Sil, Power Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “Ukraine’s onshore wind amounted to 591.2 MW in 2018, and is expected to grow at 20 per cent CAGR to reach 6.5 GW in 2030 from 855.6 MW in 2019. It will show the highest growth out of the country’s renewable power sources, followed by biopower and solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity, which are expected to grow at 16 per cent and 13 per cent CAGR, respectively, over the forecast period to reach 640 MW and 6.6 GW by 2030.”
Ukraine is reliant on nuclear and coal sources for the bulk of its power generation, and its nuclear reactors are totally dependent on foreign fuel. Over 50 per cent of enriched fuel is imported from Russia, while the remaining is sourced from the US. In addition, ongoing military conflict in the coal-rich Donbas region has seriously hampered domestic coal production, resulting in increased coal import.
The decrease in domestic coal production has resulted in Ukraine importing coal from South Africa, Poland and the US. Moreover, growing tensions with Russia can also jeopardize the nuclear fuel supply into Ukraine. In such a scenario, ramping up renewable capacity will go a long way in securing uninterrupted power generation in the long term.
Sil concludes: “Following the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the US has become a major supplier of coal and nuclear fuel for Ukraine. The country is expected to continue import of two major power sources until the end of the Ukrainian crisis in order to reduce imports from Russia and secure its energy supply.”