The UK government is forecast to miss it’s revised Clean Power 2030 targets for offshore, onshore and solar PV by a combined 32 GW according to new forecasts from Cornwall Insight.
The data, from Cornwall Insight’s GB Benchmark Power Curve, is projecting a shortfall in capacity, despite the government revising down its capacity targets in its ‘Clean Power 2030 Action Plan’, released in December 2024.
With a 16 GW shortfall, solar PV is set for the biggest underperformance, reaching 29 GW compared with the 45-47 GW government target. Despite the underperformance, Cornwall Insight’s forecast still represents a 70% increase from 17 GW installed today.
Onshore wind has been boosted by changes in policy, however, growth is 10 GW short of the 27-29 GW goal as planning issues continue to hamper progress of projects at the scale needed.
Offshore wind comes closest to the target, falling just 6 GW short of the 43-50 GW goal. Despite cost inflation issues the sector has received consistent support through successive Contract for Difference allocation rounds.
The Clean Power 2030 Action Plan included some much-needed detail on infrastructure and grid connections, as well as investment in flexible generation technologies and storage to balance the intermittent generation, which could see an increase in renewables build-out. However, with 2030 only five years away the impact of these reforms may not materialise quick enough to have a substantial impact on the 2030 capacity.
The growing energy demand from data centres, spurred by the government’s push to expand AI capabilities, underscores the urgency of renewable energy investment. Without sufficient capacity, the UK grid may fall back on fossil fuels, jeopardising decarbonisation goals.
Further uncertainty stems from the lack of clarity around the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA), particularly the potential move away from national wholesale pricing. These reforms would require a comprehensive overhaul of regulations, contracts, and systems, with significant commercial implications for developers. Without clear guidance, developers are hesitant to invest, threatening the achievement of the UK’s clean power targets.
While the forecasts don’t show the 2030 target being met, the buildout would still be an impressive rise from current operational capacity.* This progress will put the electricity sector on track to achieve net zero emissions in the next decade, ahead of the net zero economy-wide target of 2050.
* UK operational capacity as of June 2024, rounded to nearest GW: offshore wind 15 GW; onshore wind 16 GW; solar 17 GW
