Economic gains from artificial intelligence will boost global output by around 0.5% a year between 2025 and 2030, outweighing the costs of rising carbon emissions by the data centres needed to run AI models, the International Monetary Fund has announced in a new study released on 22 April at its annual spring meeting in Washington.
It estimated that AI-driven global electricity needs could more than triple to around 1500 TWh by 2030. The International Energy Agency has forecast that the global rush to AI technology will require almost as much energy by the end of this decade as Japan uses today, but only about half of the demand is likely to be met from renewable sources.
The carbon footprint of that rise will in part depend on whether technology firms can keep promises to cut emissions from data centres by increased use of renewables and other means. However, there are concerns about the efficiency and commercial viability of current renewable energy sources.
The report highlights that AI could add 0.5% points to annual global GDP growth, and the resulting build-up of AI-driven carbon emissions is ‘worrisome’. But that AI could help emissions fall if applied well, say some experts.
Despite challenges related to higher electricity prices and greenhouse gas emissions, the gains to global GDP from AI are likely to outweigh the cost of the additional emissions, said the report, but it noted that those output gains would not be shared equally across the world, and called on policymakers and businesses to minimise costs to broader society.
As an example the IMF report noted that the space dedicated to server-filled warehouses in northern Virginia, which has the world’s largest concentration of data centres, was already roughly equivalent to the floor space of eight Empire State Buildings.
It is estimated that AI-driven global electricity needs could more than triple to around 1500 TWh by 2030 – about the same as India’s current electricity consumption and 1.5 times higher than expected demand from electric vehicles over the same period. The carbon footprint of that rise will in part depend on whether tech firms can keep promises to slash emissions from data centres by increased use of renewables and other means.
The IMF estimates that strong takeup of AI would, under current energy policies, mean a global cumulative increase of greenhouse gas emissions of 1.2%, between 2025 and 2030. Greener energy policies could limit that increase to 1.3 gigatonnes, it estimated.
Using a figure of $39 per ton to quantify the social cost of those emissions, it put that extra cost at $50.7 to $66.3 billion – smaller than the income gains associated with the 0.5% point annual boost to global GDP it said AI could yield.
Read the full Report: “Power Hungry: How AI Will Drive Energy Demand“
