Solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) plants could provide up to one quarter of global electricity production by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In its latest roadmaps for the two technologies, the Paris-based agency said that solar power offers considerable prospects for enhancing energy security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, it warned that effective policies must be put in place as soon as possible.
The technology roadmaps indicate that PV and CSP plants could complement each other, generating up to 9000 TWh of power in 2050. Incentives designed to support deployment should evolve over time, while governments need to ensure long-term funding for additions research, development and demonstration efforts, says the IEA.
“Long-term oriented, predictable solar-specific incentives are needed to sustain early deployment and bring both technologies to competitiveness in the most suitable locations and times,” said Nobuo Tanaka, head of the IEA.
The IEA expects PV technologies for residential and commercial buildings to reach grid parity by 2020, and to become competitive at utility-scale in the sunniest regions by 2030, providing five per cent of global electricity needs. CSP could become competitive for peak and mid-peak loads by 2020, according to the roadmap.
While PV technologies are well-suited to on-grid distributed generation in many regions, CSP could provide dispatchable electricity at utility-scale in the world’s sun-belt regions. Together they have the potential to avoid the emission of almost 6 billion t/y of energy-related CO2 by 2050, says Tanaka.
According to the roadmap, North America will be the largest producer of CSP electricity, followed by North Africa and India. North Africa would most likely export around half of its production to Europe.
“The firm capacity and flexibility of CSP plants will help grid operators integrate larger amounts of variable renewable electricity such as solar PV and wind power,” said Tanaka. “PV will expand under a broader range of climate conditions and bring clean renewable electricity directly to end-users.”