
The UK government is forecast to miss its revised Clean Power 2030 targets for offshore, onshore and solar PV by a combined 32 GW according to new forecasts from analysts Cornwall Insight.
The data, from Cornwall Insight’s GB Benchmark Power Curve, is projecting a shortfall in capacity, despite the government having revised downwards its capacity targets in its ‘Clean Power 2030 Action Plan, released in December.
With a 16 GW shortfall, solar PV is set for the biggest underperformance, reaching 29 GW compared to the 45-47 GW government target. However, despite the underperformance, Cornwall Insight’s forecast still represents a 70% increase from 17GW installed today.
Onshore wind has been boosted by changes in policy, but growth is still 10 GW short of the 27-29 GW goal as planning issues continues to hamper progress of projects at the scale needed. Offshore wind comes closest to the target falling just 6 GW short of the 43-50 GW goal. Despite cost inflation issues the sector has received consistent support through successive Contract for Difference allocation rounds.
The Clean Power 2030 Action Plan included some detail on infrastructure and grid connections, as well as investment in flexible generation technologies and storage to balance the intermittent generation, which could see an increase in renewables build-out. However, says Cornwall, with 2030 only five years away the impact of these reforms may not materialise quick enough to have a substantial impact on the 2030 capacity.
The growing energy demand from data centres, spurred by the government’s push to expand AI capabilities, underscores the urgency of renewable energy investment. Without sufficient capacity, the UK grid may fall back on fossil fuels, jeopardising decarbonisation goals.
Further uncertainty stems from the lack of clarity around the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA), particularly the potential move away from national wholesale pricing. These reforms would require a comprehensive overhaul of regulations, contracts, and systems, with significant commercial implications for developers. Without clear guidance, developers will hesitate to invest, threatening the achievement of the UK’s clean power targets.
While the forecasts don’t show the 2030 target being met, the build-out would still be an impressive rise from current operational capacity. This scale of progress would put the electricity sector on track to achieve net zero emissions in the next decade, ahead of the net zero economy-wide target of 2050.
Tom Musker, modelling manager at Cornwall Insight commented: “Renewables are set for substantial growth over the next five years, … however, despite promising progress, the gap between this growth and government targets underscores the urgent need to address both the operational and investment barriers slowing renewables growth. Grid connection delays, supply chain constraints, and uncertainty surrounding electricity market reforms are all creating a challenging environment for developers. Without swift and decisive action to resolve these issues, the UK risks falling significantly behind its clean power ambitions.
“While setting ambitious goals for renewables is crucial, some argue that pushing too quickly could have unintended consequences, diverting resources to short-term solutions at the expense of longer-term energy security and sustainability. Timely investment in infrastructure, clarity on market reforms, and support for innovative project delivery are vital to unlocking the UK’s clean energy potential, ensuring we not only meet immediate clean power goals but also stay on track for our broader net zero commitments.”