Global greenhouse gas emissions must fall sharply over the next 15 years to limit the overshoot of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming threshold, according to the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return.
The report examines a pathway in which global temperatures peak at 1.7–1.8°C above pre-industrial levels around mid-century before returning to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with an estimated 50% probability. Achieving this scenario would require emissions to fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, relative to 2025 levels.
By comparison, full implementation of countries’ current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would reduce emissions by only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035. Under current policies, warming could reach 2.8°C this century, the report estimates, falling to 2.6°C if NDCs are fully implemented and to 2.1°C under a more optimistic scenario that also delivers additional net-zero targets.
For the power sector, UNEP calls for faster implementation of commitments to expand renewable energy and improve energy efficiency. Its indicative benchmarks imply that global renewable electricity capacity should be at least three times its 2025 level by 2035 and 4.5 times that level by 2040. Primary energy intensity of GDP would need to fall by at least 30% and 40%, respectively, over the same period.
The report also sets out a steep reduction pathway for coal-fired generation: output would need to fall by at least 75% by 2035, relative to 2025, with coal generation effectively phased out globally by 2040. Methane emissions would need to decline by at least 25% by 2035 and 40% by 2040.
UNEP cites more than 220 policy evaluations showing that electricity-sector policies reduced emissions by an average of 9% during the periods assessed. It also reports that global renewable electricity capacity has expanded faster than anticipated since the Paris Agreement, with solar photovoltaic deployment increasing particularly rapidly.
However, the report warns that existing progress remains insufficient to deliver the required reductions. Returning to 1.5°C would also depend on removing and permanently storing approximately 320 gigatonnes of CO2 over the century, a requirement the report identifies as uncertain because of technological and socioeconomic challenges.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the scale and duration of any temperature overshoot could still be limited, while UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen called for policies capable of delivering rapid and sustained emissions reductions.
