China is poised to hit a landmark in its energy transition, with installed solar power capacity expected to exceed coal for the first time, according to the Independent. Recently-released data shows solar capacity is on track to overtake coal in 2026, following years of rapid expansion that have turned China into the world’s largest solar market, despite its continued reliance on coal for energy security.
Solar capacity reached about 1,200 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2025, growing at an average rate of roughly 270 GW a year over the past three years. By contrast, coal capacity is expected to climb to around 1,333 GW by the end of 2026. By that point, wind and solar combined are projected to account for roughly 50% of China’s total installed power capacity, while coal’s share falls to about 31%, according to the China Electricity Council.
Analysts caution that the crossover does not mean solar will immediately generate more electricity than coal. Solar plants in China operate at an average capacity factor of around 14 per cent, compared with about 50 per cent for coal, meaning coal-fired power stations still produce several times more electricity. Even so, experts say the direction of new investment matters. Total generating capacity across all sources is forecast to rise by more than 400 GW this year, largely driven by renewables.
Andreas Sieber of climate group 350.org called the shift a “historic inflection point,” arguing it demonstrates clean energy’s advantage in cost and scale. Others note that renewable power growth is now outpacing overall electricity demand, a trend that has begun to push down fossil fuel emissions, making China’s transition significant for global climate goals.
