In the US Energy Information Administration’s ‘Annual Energy Outlook 2025’ Reference case, it projects that the electricity consumed for commercial computing will increase faster than any other end use in buildings. Computing accounted for an estimated 8% of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2024 and grows to 20% by 2050. Ultimately, more electrical power could be consumed by computing than for any other end use in the commercial sector, including lighting, space cooling, and ventilation.
EIA expects commercial computing growth to outpace computing efficiency improvements which, in the past, have moderated the growth in electricity consumption associated with computers. Commercial computing electricity demand growth is significant enough in the projections to contribute to a reversal in the trend in declining commercial electricity intensity, as measured in kilowatt–hours consumed per square foot. Many of its assumptions about future energy consumption are based on average energy consumption per unit of commercial floor space.
Data centre computing is significantly more energy intensive than computing in general. By 2050, as much as 7% of all US commercial floor space across most building types will require additional energy to meet data centre demand.
Because data centres generate heat and require more air exchange, the increase in data centre computing also requires more commercial ventilation and space cooling. However, these uses are sensitive to assumptions about population migration and the weather. Without computing demand, ventilation and space cooling would still grow but at slower rates.
Much of what is known about how US commercial buildings use energy is informed by the EIA’s ‘Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey’. Data centre equipment is found in both standalone data centre buildings and in on-premises data centre rooms that are part of most building types. The latest CBECS shows that data centre rooms were most prevalent in healthcare and large office buildings.
