The University of Manchester in the UK has been awarded funding to lead a 12-month research project to improve understanding of the energy yield from offshore wind in UK waters, as capacity increases, in particular losses arising from wake effects.
The new project, POUNDS (Prediction Of UnqualifieD losseS from offshore wind farm wakes), aims to provide a national-scale assessment of interactions between wind farms, supporting policymakers and industry leaders to optimise offshore wind energy production in the drive to net zero.
The UK government has set a target to reach 43-50 GW of offshore wind by 2030. Rapid progress has already been made with 16 GW now in operation and further projects are being developed under the recent Contract for Difference Allocations. Nevertheless, achieving the 2030 target requires an up to three-fold increase of capacity, with over 100 GW potentially installed by 2050.
Such substantial expansion of offshore wind farms means they must be built closer together, making it crucial to understand how this affects predictions of annual energy production.
When large groups of turbines are built in close proximity, they create ‘wakes’ where wind slows down behind them. Wakes have been observed extending 65 km and are increasingly impacting the performance of neighbouring farms, reducing the power generation efficiency of the turbines and causing conflicts between wind farm operators.
Project Lead Dr Pablo Ouro, Research Fellow in the Department of Civil Engineering and Management at The University of Manchester, said: “Achieving the target of 43-50 GW of deployed offshore wind farms by 2030 is crucial for NetZero and energy security, but reduction in energy prediction due to wind farm wakes must be addressed.”
“Our POUNDS project is key to overcoming these challenges, informing policy makers and project developers about strategies to better quantify these losses. Similar initiatives of national importance have been developed in Germany, The Netherlands and the US, and our project aims to support the whole UK offshore wind industry.”
POUNDS, funded by Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC) Supergen Offshore Renewable Energy Impact Hub, will be carried out in partnership with institutes, industry experts, and offshore wind farm developers, including ORE Catapult, Arup, EDF, RWE, and The Crown Estate.
The project’s key aims include:
- Assessing how offshore wind farms affect each other’s power production, and the revenue implications of these impacts.
- Helping to identify the best locations for future offshore wind farms to minimise these losses and ensure the UK’s renewable energy targets are met.
- Validating modelled performance data against operational data.
- Improving model accuracy in forecasting wind farm energy production.
As for its methodology, POUNDS will use state-of-the-art mesoscale models – a type of advanced numerical weather forecasting model – to model the performance of wind farms spanning UK waters at a resolution of 1 km. It will assess both the wind farms operational in 2023, and the thousands more wind turbines that are planned by 2030.
The analysis will evaluate accuracy of the model relative to real-world data and quantify the effects of inter-farm wakes on predicted energy yield. It will also capture wind farm wakes and wind farm performance in comparison to energy export grid data.
This combination of advanced modelling and collaboration with leading stakeholders is designed to support delivery of the UK’s target to become NetZero by 2050.
“The UK Government’s recent Clean Power 2030 Action Plan’s identification of inter-farm wind wakes as an area of focus highlights this issue’s importance,” said Ken Kasriel, Energy Economist with Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult. “This study could make important contributions towards better understanding and planning around them.”
By modelling the interactions between wind farms more precisely, the team hopes to provide better guidance for developers and policymakers, reduce investment risks, and resolve conflicts between wind farm operators.
The official launch of the POUNDS project was scheduled for the 8th EPSRC ORE Impact Hub Annual Assembly, to be held at The University of Manchester, 15 April 2025.
