Electricity consumption in the Middle East and North Africa has risen sharply in recent decades and is set to keep rising sharply, with a range of sources expected to meet the growing demand as countries seek to diversify their power supplies.
The International Energy Agency’s new report, The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa, provides detailed country-by-country analysis of the electricity sectors across a region that has long been a cornerstone of the global energy system. It finds that electricity demand in the Middle East and North Africa tripled between 2000 and 2024 as populations and incomes rose, the third largest growth globally after China and India. And based on today’s policy settings, the region’s electricity consumption is projected to rise by another 50% by 2035.
With a climate characterised by extreme heat and water scarcity in most parts of the region, the largest portion of the projected increase in electricity demand over the next decade – around 40% – is set to come from cooling and desalination.
Today, natural gas and oil overwhelmingly dominate the region’s electricity mix, accounting for over 90% of total generation. However, many countries are pursuing policies to reduce the role oil plays in their power systems.
As a result, based on today’s policy settings, natural gas is set to meet half of electricity demand growth to 2035. This would help reduce oil-fired output to just 5% of total generation, down from 20% today. Meanwhile, solar PV capacity in the region is on course to increase tenfold by 2035, pushing the share of renewables in the region’s electricity generation to around 25%. And nuclear power is poised to expand strongly, with capacity set to triple.
