Renewable sources of electricity generation continue to expand strongly around the world, with global capacity expected to more than double by 2030, according to The International Energy Agency’s latest medium-term forecast. But it seems that growth is slowing. Last year the 2030 forecast for global increase was 5500 GW, a figure that has this year been modified to 4600 GW.
The IEA ascribes this reduction in gain to “policy, regulatory and market changes since October 2024”, as reported in its latest report on renewable energy, Renewables 2025, its main annual assessment of the sector.
Nonetheless the increase of 4600 gigawatts by 2030 is remarkable, roughly the equivalent of adding China, the European Union and Japan’s combined total power generation capacity and more than doubling the global total installed by 2030 as the sector navigates headwinds in supply chains, grid integration, financing and policy shifts mainly in the USA and in China.
Solar PV will account for around 80% of the global increase over the next five years – driven by low costs and faster permitting timeframes – followed by wind, hydro, bioenergy and geothermal.
These forecast adjustments are partly offset by buoyancy in other regions – particularly India, Europe and most emerging and developing economies. There, growth prospects have been revised upward due to ambitious new policies, expanded auction volumes, faster permitting and rising deployment of rooftop solar. In addition to established markets, renewable capacity is forecast to expand rapidly, led by solar PV, in economies such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Southeast Asia.
Global supply chains for solar PV and rare earth elements used in wind turbines remain heavily concentrated in China, underscoring ongoing risks to supply chain security. At the same time, says the IEA, the rapid rise of variable renewables is placing increasing pressure on electricity systems, according to the report – signalling the need for urgent investment in grids, storage and flexible generation.
